Barron’s 2010 Roundtable of Wall Street luminaries like Mario Gabelli, Fred Hickey, and Marc Faber was surprisingly upbeat about the U.S. stock market in 2010, reflecting their expectation that the worst of the financial crisis is past, and despite several overhanging challenges in 2010, the economy is well-positioned to capitalize on profitable growth opportunities as they emerge.
And as you might expect, perma-bear David Rosenberg, who completely missed the Market’s March lows and has been bearish all the way up, disagrees with that assessment:
Gluskin Sheff: “The emerging consensus is that everything is just going to be fine and that we should expect nothing more than a second-half economic slowdown, and that if there is a sharper turndown the monetary and fiscal spigots will be turned on even harder. The market is seen no worse than fair-value. Treasuries remain the enemy.
This tone was highly evident in the Barron’s Roundtable, and we
offer a few snippets below”:
- Felix Zulauf: “Cyclical forces are bullish … the market probably has 10% upside from here… my next recommendation is to short government bonds.”
- Abby Joseph Cohen: “We think global growth won’t be too bad in 2010 … we’re forecasting S&P 500 earnings of $75 to $76 this year and $90 next year.”
- Fred Hickey: “The stock market will likely be up this year, unless the dollar collapses.”
- Scott Black: “I figure S&P 500 earnings will be closer to $66, which puts the market at 17.3 times earnings, about the historic norm.”
- Oscar Schafer: “Liquidity and another stimulus package will keep the market up.”
- Marc Faber: “The S&P 500 won’t revisit the March 2009 low of 666 in nominal terms ever again.”
- Meryl Witmer: “Fifteen times earnings seems about right for the market, and earnings could grow a little this year … fair value isn’t so different from where the market is now.”
- Archie MacAllastar: “I’m an optimist, I expect the S&P to earn $75 to $80 this year. Public participation will increase.”
- Mario Gabelli: “You’ll be up 5% to 10% in the first half of the year … interest rates at some point will top 4%.”
- Scott Black: “The underpinnings of the economy aren’t quite as bleak as everyone thinks.”