Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter, shares his market outlook for the New Year. According to Mr. Gartman, one of the surprising events of this year shall be how strongly the U.S. economy will perform as we move along through the year.
“The Gartman Letter: Over the coming days and weeks we’ll put forth our few “predictions” for what may happen in ’10. Others have put their ideas forth at the previous year’s end, and yesterday, and we figured that our clients have been blasted by that sort of thing, so we’ll dribble our predictions out piecemeal. Thus, firstly we’ll suggest that one of the surprising events of this year shall be just how strong shall be the US and the global economy as we move along through the year. The consensus amongst the economic cognoscenti is that growth here in the US shall be tepid at best, with GDP figures barely higher by mid-year and perhaps only 1.5-2.25% GDP growth at best by mid-year. We suggest that it shall be quite a good seal stronger than that, and we’d not be surprised to see GDP growth of 3-4% by mid-year.
Yes, there are problems with housing, and yes the consumer is “strapped,” but inventories of everything are low; capital expenditures for everything have been low for years; the nation’s auto fleet is old and must be replace… and above all, monetary stimulus remains intact. The surprise: GDP growth will surprise us all… bullishly.”