http://wallstreetpit.com/12491-china-is-the-next-goldilocks-economy-to-fall Tue, 22 May 2012 19:21:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://wallstreetpit.com/12491-china-is-the-next-goldilocks-economy-to-fall#comment-84265 Ben Gee Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:22:00 +0000 http://wallstreetpit.com/?p=12491#comment-84265 For those of you waiting for the Chinese economic bubble to burst, I hope you are not holding your breath. It may last for years. China came a long way in the past 30 years, but it still has a long way to go to reach even 50% of the standard of living in the West or Japan. As far as development is concern, only about 12-15% of China is close to fully developed. The rest of China is only starting to develop. People talk about a Chinese real state bubble. What real state bubble? The average living area of a Chinese family is less than 50% of families in the West. With another 300 million people in the next 5-10 years moving into cities, the price going up is not because of bubbles, but because supply can not meet demand. There are lots of empty buildings? How many of those are actully completed? Some of them maybe asking too much? Too much steel and cement capacities? Is is not too bad? Some of the inefficient mills may have to close. Or is it? For those of you waiting for the Chinese economic bubble to burst, I hope you are not holding your breath. It may last for years. China came a long way in the past 30 years, but it still has a long way to go to reach even 50% of the standard of living in the West or Japan. As far as development is concern, only about 12-15% of China is close to fully developed. The rest of China is only starting to develop.
People talk about a Chinese real state bubble. What real state bubble? The average living area of a Chinese family is less than 50% of families in the West. With another 300 million people in the next 5-10 years moving into cities, the price going up is not because of bubbles, but because supply can not meet demand. There are lots of empty buildings? How many of those are actully completed? Some of them maybe asking too much?
Too much steel and cement capacities? Is is not too bad? Some of the inefficient mills may have to close. Or is it?

]]> http://wallstreetpit.com/12491-china-is-the-next-goldilocks-economy-to-fall#comment-84017 Ben Gee Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:41:49 +0000 http://wallstreetpit.com/?p=12491#comment-84017 China does NOT follow Western economic principles. China does NOT build for today, China build for the future. People predicted China's economic failure are wishfull thinking-they can not stand the fact that China is rising. They want China to fail because of their believe. People who predicted China's political failure do not understand Chinese history. Chinese societies never rebelled in time of plenty. China is always changing not only economically but politically as well. The difference between China 30 years ago and China today is greater than the difference between China and Canada. China can have more changes within a single party system than most country with multiparty systems. In our DEMOCRATIC societies, we can change the governing body without changing the system. In China, it can change the system without changing the governing party. In the next 10 to 20 years, we will see wealth spread from the coastal cities to the interior. It is actually happening as of this minute. Today, roads, schools, hospital and industries are being build in the interior at great speed. Will China collapse one day? Maybe, but not in my life time and may not be yours. China does NOT follow Western economic principles. China does NOT build for today, China build for the future.
People predicted China’s economic failure are wishfull thinking-they can not stand the fact that China is rising. They want China to fail because of their believe.
People who predicted China’s political failure do not understand Chinese history. Chinese societies never rebelled in time of plenty.
China is always changing not only economically but politically as well. The difference between China 30 years ago and China today is greater than the difference between China and Canada. China can have more changes within a single party system than most country with multiparty systems. In our DEMOCRATIC societies, we can change the governing body without changing the system. In China, it can change the system without changing the governing party. In the next 10 to 20 years, we will see wealth spread from the coastal cities to the interior. It is actually happening as of this minute. Today, roads, schools, hospital and industries are being build in the interior at great speed.
Will China collapse one day? Maybe, but not in my life time and may not be yours.

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